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Child Maltreatment
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Time to Leave Substantiation Behind

Findings From A National Probability Study

Patricia L. Kohl

Washington University

Melissa Jonson-Reid

Washington University

Brett Drake

Washington University, brettd{at}wustl.edu

Data from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-being, a national probability study of children and families investigated for child maltreatment, were analyzed to answer the question: Do substantiated and unsubstantiated cases differ in rates of recidivism over 36 months? Recidivism was classified as (a) any re-reports, (b) substantiated re-reports and (c) subsequent foster care placements. Bivariate (survivor functions estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method) and multivariate (Cox regression modeling) analyses were conducted. The results revealed that risk of recidivism was similar regardless of substantiation status of the index investigation. We suggest that the substantiation label be removed from field use. Instead, we suggest that agencies record service needs in the families they serve, and also record whether or not the family meets criteria for referral to the family court. These would be far more practical and meaningful ways to measure child welfare services.

Key Words: child welfare services/child protection • risk assessment • children in child welfare • survival analysis

This version was published on February 1, 2009

Child Maltreatment, Vol. 14, No. 1, 17-26 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/1077559508326030
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