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Survival Analysis of Risk Factors for Recidivism in Child Abuse and Neglect
David B. Marshall
State of Washington Office of Children's Administration Research
Diana J. English
State of Washington Office of Children's Administration Research
The objective of this study was to examine, in an ecological context, the relative importance of risk factors for chronic recidivism in child abuse/neglect (CA/N). Survival analysis of multiple referrals to Child Protective Services (CPS), supplemented by neural network analysis, shows that a constellation of risk and other factors are associated with the likelihood of recidivism of CA/N. Caregivers distinguish families with multiple referrals by their history of abuse or neglect as children, abuse or neglect that began at an early age, having children with developmental delays, and having multiple victims in the family. Time to rereferral decreases with an increasing number of prior referrals, and there is a marked difference in the time to the first rereferral when compared to subsequent rereferrals. This indicates that referral to CPS reflects conditions that increase the likelihood of additional referrals to CPS. Administrative factors account for some of the variance in multiple referrals.
Child Maltreatment, Vol. 4, No. 4,
287-296 (1999)
DOI: 10.1177/1077559599004004002
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